📐Full Public Disclosure · No Cherry-Picking

Attribution Methodology —
The Math Behind Every Number

Every performance claim on louieauto.com has a source, a model, an attribution range, and the market adjustments we apply to NOT take full credit. This page discloses all of it. Including the results we don't attribute to ourselves.

This is pre-commercial, operator-controlled data — not third-party-audited DMS exports. External customer validation is the stated next milestone. Read the full context before forming conclusions.

Contents

  1. $312 PVR Lift — Sources and Model
  2. The 65% Attribution and Why We Don't Take 100%
  3. Market Factor Adjustments (What We Back Out)
  4. Sensitivity Table — 40% to 90% Range
  5. Lender Routing Data (285K Outcomes)
  6. Simulation Engine (3.7M Runs)
  7. What We Explicitly Don't Credit to Ourselves
  8. Deployment Context and Honest Limitations

The $312 PVR Lift — Sources and Model

The $312/unit figure is the gross per-vehicle-retail uplift observed in the operator's own group data over an 18-month comparison window: February 2024–January 2025 (pre-deployment baseline) versus March 2025–February 2026 (with Louie running). Measured across 1,167+ retail deals in the pilot group.

What "PVR lift" means here

ComponentBaseline Period AvgPost-Deploy AvgDelta
Front-end gross / unit$1,840$2,041+$201
F&I backend gross / unit$890$1,001+$111
Combined PVR delta18-month comparison, 1,167+ deals+$312 gross

Source: Operator DMS P&L rollups cross-referenced with ActivityLog event tables. One group, four rooftops, same metro. Not third-party-audited DMS exports — these are internal operator-side figures derived from the same data layer the platform's AI uses for ongoing calibration.

What this is and isn't: This is a single-group pre/post comparison operated by the founder. It is not a randomized controlled trial. It is not an external customer study. External customer validation is the next milestone (targeted Q4 2026). The data is real — it comes from actual deals run through the platform — but it is not yet independently validated. We say this on every page that cites the $312 figure.

The 65% Attribution — Why We Don't Take 100%

The $312 delta is the total observed gross improvement. We do not claim 100% of that improvement is caused by Louie. We apply a 50–80% attribution range and anchor our published figures at 65% — the midpoint of that range.

Why 50–80% and not 100%

During the deployment period, several external factors also improved outcomes:

  • Federal Reserve rate reduction of 100bps (H2 2024) — lowered financing costs, improved approval rates independent of Louie
  • Regional used-vehicle price normalization (post-2022 spike correction leveled off)
  • The operator's own team gained deal experience throughout the period
  • One rooftop added a senior F&I manager in Q3 2024

These factors are partially — not fully — controlable. The 50–80% range represents the modeled bounds: 50% = conservative (most external factors credited, Louie gets only direct-engagement-correlated lift); 80% = ceiling (Louie's AI routing is credited for deals where the AI's lender recommendation was followed and resulted in higher reserve than the prior average). 65% = midpoint for published figures.

Attribution %Attributable PVRAnnual / Rooftop (200 units/mo)Rationale
40% floor$125/unit$300KAggressive downside — most lift from market
50% conservative$156/unit$374KConservative bound published in risk tables
65% published$203/unit$487KMidpoint. This is the figure we publish.
80% ceiling$250/unit$600KUpper bound — deals where AI recommendation directly traceable
90%$281/unit$674KNot our claim — shown for reference only

Market Factor Adjustments — What We Back Out

The following market factors were identified in the deployment window and partially backed out of the attribution model. We are conservative about crediting Louie for tailwinds we can't control.

FactorPeriodEstimated ImpactHow We Adjust
Fed rate cut (−100bps)H2 2024~+$40–70 PVR via lower payment floorBacked out of F&I backend attribution
Used-vehicle price stabilization2024 ongoing~+$30–50 front gross from trade normalizationPartially backed out — front gross baseline adjusted
Team tenure growth18 monthsEstimated +5–10% close rate from experienceApplied discount to salesperson-attributed gains
Senior F&I addition (Q3 2024)One rooftop only~$80–120 PVR that rooftopThat rooftop's F&I gain partially excluded from group avg

Sensitivity Table — Full Range

The figures below show what the annual operator gross lift looks like across attribution percentages and unit volumes. Every number in LouieAuto's marketing material can be traced to a cell in this table.

Attribution
100 units/mo
200 units/mo
400 units/mo
40%
$180K/yr
$360K/yr
$720K/yr
50%
$225K/yr
$449K/yr
$898K/yr
65% (published)
$292K/yr
$584K/yr
$1.17M/yr
80%
$360K/yr
$720K/yr
$1.44M/yr

Based on $312 gross PVR delta × attribution % × 12 months × unit volume. Does not include service-to-sales conversion value or BDC improvement attribution — those are tracked and disclosed separately on the proof page.

Lender Routing Data — 285K+ Outcomes

The brain's lender weight calibration is derived from 285,000+ closed-loop lender outcomes — first-look decisions, stip resolutions, funded deal terms, and declined deal patterns — accumulated over 18 months of the simulation engine running on the operator's deal profiles.

What the 285K represents

Data LayerSourceCount
Simulated lender decisionsBrain simulation engine (3.7M deal runs × 42 lenders)3.7M+ simulations
Closed-loop lender weight recordslender_weight_cache table, louieauto.db491,848 weight records
Weighted active outcome calibrationsync-sims-to-closed-loop.js, nightly 1:30am285K+ active signals
Intelligence log entriesintelligence_log, louieauto.db3.3M+ entries

Important distinction: The 285K outcome calibration is derived primarily from the simulation engine running against realistic dealer archetypes — not 285K independently funded real deals. The simulation is calibrated against the operator's actual deal data, but the simulation outputs themselves are modeled. This distinction matters for external diligence. We disclose it here and in the diligence FAQ.

The Simulation Engine — 3.7M Runs Explained

The 3.7M+ deal simulation runs are the output of Louie's AI simulation engine running deal archetypes through the 42-lender matrix under varied parameters (FICO tier, LTV, vehicle age, term, market region, lender box changes over time). These are not 3.7M independent customer transactions.

MetricValueWhat It Means
Total simulation runs3,674,916Simulated deal scenarios run through the lender matrix
Unique deal archetypes1,167Distinct customer/vehicle/term profiles used as seeds
Lenders in matrix42Each archetype × 42 lenders × parameter sweeps = 3.7M total
Simulation DB size14.2GBsimulation.db — queryable on acquisition
Intelligence log entries3.3M+Patterns learned, signals captured, outcomes logged

What We Explicitly Don't Credit to Ourselves

We believe this list matters as much as the proof claims. A platform that tells you what it doesn't own is more trustworthy than one that takes credit for everything that went up during the deployment window.

Deployment Context — Honest Limitations

This is pre-commercial, operator-controlled deployment. All metrics shown on louieauto.com are derived from the founder's own group operating the platform, not external paying customers. There are zero external paid customers at the time of this publication (June 2026). External customer pilots are the stated next milestone, targeted Q4 2026. Metrics labeled "simulation-based" or "modeled" use the simulation engine's outputs — not independently funded real deals from external dealers.

We disclose this on the diligence FAQ, the acquisition page, and the proof page. We do not hide it. The question for a potential acquirer or customer is not whether external validation exists — it doesn't yet — but whether the platform's architecture, lender data, and IP are worth acquiring at the price, given what external validation would likely prove.

All data tables, source files, and the full simulation database are available for review under NDA. Request access at the acquisition page.

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